This is done by looking at the results from a set of English and maths tests that are given to a sample of Year 11 pupils in the spring before their GCSEs. These results should show if performance among the current cohort is higher or lower than usual, and could potentially be used as evidence to adjust GCSE grade boundaries to reflect any differences.
In practice, Ofqual have been cautious about using the austria rcs data test in this way, and this year did not make any adjustments to grade boundaries based on the results, despite a slight drop in attainment in English compared to 2023 (albeit with overlapping confidence intervals). It is, perhaps, fair to ask why the test is still being administered if it is not to be used for grade boundaries.
We include results for all years since the test was introduced in the table below, but the important comparison is between 2017, the baseline year, and this year (highlighted on the table).
This comparison reveals a fall in performance in English language, and a small increase in maths. Given the disruption caused to this year’s cohort by the pandemic, a fall in performance in both areas would perhaps not be surprising.