Although the sample is many times larger than that of opinion polls, the composition of the group is unknown. We know from research that highly educated men with political interests are overrepresented . Moreover, it is questionable whether people on social media really say what they think and feel, especially since many are aware that everyone can read along. And what they talk about a lot, do they ultimately vote for?
Social media analyses are complex: it is a challenge to extract the right information from a multitude of messages and to weigh it in the right way. Parties, themes or politicians that receive relatively much attention on social media, such as the PVV in the Netherlands and the Pirate Party in Germany, are estimated to be larger than they really are.
Do political stock markets do better ? The stock prices incorporate the information and knowledge that lives in the market (read: among citizens). Participants must think carefully about what the average fellow citizens vote for, because money is at stake. Nevertheless, strategic behavior plays a major role in stock markets: price gains become a goal in themselves.
And who are these investors? If they are professional 'investors', there is a risk that israel telegram data they cannot properly assess what is going on among the general population. Parties that are voted for by lower educated and less politically active citizens are underestimated. When a broad group of society participates in the stock market, the chance of 'wisdom of crowds' increases. But then the stock prices are also governed more by panic, because these ordinary citizens are more guided by news from the media. That increases the fluctuations in the prices. Moreover, stock markets then become more following than leading other opinion polls.